Misc. Ramblings

Week of 12 February through 16 February 2001
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Monday - 12 February 2001

A Presumptive Error. First, our deepest apologies to the families and friends of the nine Japanese sailors who had their lives taken from them. The Navy has done the right thing by taking 100% responsibility and offering its deepest regrets.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is just beginning its investigation so it will be awhile before we get a clearer picture of what happened nine miles South of Diamond Head. But so far, we seem to know the following:

1. The submarine USS Greeneville was operating within a marked (on navigational charts) submarine transit lane [This is now in question. Another report has the sub two miles outside of the lane].

2. The 174-ft. (53 metres) [one late report has it 190-ft] Ehime Maru was transitting, at 11 knots/hour, a well-known and well-used inter-island course for surface ships.

3. The submarine was carrying civilian VIP passengers. It is not yet known whether the maneuver was part of a demonstration for these passengers [It appears this is the case and that one of them was at the helm at the time of the collision]. The identities of these civilians are being kept secret by the Navy.

4. The submarine did a passive, rather than active, sonar search for surface objects. It is unclear whether an active sonar search, as was recommended by the NTSB after the 1990 sinking of the tug boat Barcona, by the USS Houston which snagged a tow cable pulling the tug under and killing one of its crewmen was required in this situation [It probably was, but according to later reports, the Navy rejected the recommendation of the NTSB and has refused to use active sonar] nor whether the active search would have picked-up the presence of the Japanese vessel.

5. The submarine, before surfacing, did two periscope searches to look for possible obstructions. It is unclear whether or not what was seen through the scope was recorded.

6. Notwithstanding being in a a submarine lane, maritime law and tradition seems to indicate that responsibility for avoiding collision lies solely and totally with the submarine. If there is a collision, it is presumed that the submarine is at fault as civilian surface vessels do not have the facilities to track submerged submarines. Hence, the quick and appropriate apology by the Navy.

What is not so appropriate is keeping the identities of the civilian passengers secret. The Navy must disclose this and all other non-classified information, whether the Navy thinks it pertinent or not. This is an international incident of large proportions. The US is being judged by what it does. Now is not the time to be seen as hiding non-classified information.

Mad Hatter. If you think there aren't viruses loose in the wild you better hope you don't have contact with a university. For example, the University of Hawai'i installed virus scanner software (see it here) on their mail servers the first of this month. Prior to this, no scanning was being done. From the 1st through the 5th, the following viruses were found:


Virus Name Qty Removed
W32/Navidad-B 414
W32/Hybris-B 369
W32/Apology-B 49
W32/Hybris-C 31
W32/Verona-B 20
VBS/LoveLet-G 13
WM97/Marker-C 11
WM97/Zippy-C 7
WM97/Story-Y 6
W32/Navidad 4
WM97/Thus-T 4
VBS/LoveLet-AS 3
WM97/Marker-R 3
WM97/Opey-J 3
WM97/Marker-CQ 2
W32/Pretty 1
WM/Cap 1
WM97/Class-B 1
WM97/Melissa 1
WM97/Melissa-X 1
Total: 944
That's 944 virus incidents found in five days. I've never found a virus on one of my PCs. But people have given me diskettes which were found to have viruses on them and I've gotten infected emails. The old saying of an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure seems to fit this situation. So, be afraid. Very Afraid. Or be sorry. YMMV.

Aloha!

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Tuesday - 13 February 2001

VMware 100: Dan 1. < GT2 Turbo Mode="on"> So, I got all of the stuff that the VMWare support page said I needed to get installed for token-ring going under VMware. Too bad it still doesn't work. It seems there are the small matters of re-compiling the kernel and adding a second NIC (see the IP Masquerade support page from VMware here). Small bother, that. Or may even a piffle. Nay, perhaps even a full blown WTF if there ever was one. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what it takes to get IP chains and masquerading operational but if the VMware support page is accurate, I have to do the above just to get Internet access for a virtual machine.

As Adam should have said to Eve; "I don't think so." My experiments with VMware under token-ring have come to an end. Oh, the score of one for me (i.e., Dan 1) above? VMware has an "uninstall" script that seems to work pretty well.<GT2 Turbo Mode="off">

Dangerous Times. It's getting really dangerous to be involved with the military here recently. Last Friday it's a submarine colliding with a Japanese training vessel killing nine Japanese nationals. Last night it's two Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters crashing and killing six soldiers.

I have a 10 page paper on the economic and political perspectives of the question; Should an Environmental Impact Statement be required for tourism related activities? So I gotta go - Aloha!

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Hump Day Wednesday - 14 February 2001

Happy Valentines Day!

And if you've forgotten to get your loved one a card, there's always groveling <G>

The Prisoner's Dilemma in a Nutshell. Last night's class involved a conversation about an article by an Indiana University professor by the name of E. Ostrom published in the Summer 2000 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. The article discusses what has come to be known as the "zero contribution thesis." Namely, that rational self-interested individuals will not act to achieve their common or group interests, even when such cooperation would be to their mutual benefit. In other words, all people are basically selfish and always put their personal self-interest ahead of the group.

This thesis underlies many public policy decisions and perhaps even some political parties (Republicans and Libertarians come to mind). The problem is, the thesis can be empirically discredited. How? By running iterations of the Prisoner Dilemma (see it here). The game pits two players against each other. They have two choices: cooperate or defect. Each must make their decision independent of the other and each is physically isolated from the other. If both choose to cooperate, each gets three points. If both choose to defect, each gets one point. However, if one chooses to cooperate and the other defect, the one who chooses to defect gets five points and the other zero.

So what do you do? Under the zero contribution thesis, each would defect since it is in their own self-interest, i.e., you get the highest point total, to defect (each assuming that the other guy is a chump and will cooperate). The problem is, as the game illustrates, if both defect and do not cooperate, they get fewer points than if they cooperate. And in running this simulation, over thousands of times over at least the 25 years I've known of this game, the outcome is fairly consistent. The majority of people in fact will cooperate because cooperation, in the long run, will give you the highest point totals. While this does not disprove that people may be basically self-interested, it does disprove the thesis that they will not cooperate with each other to reach a common good.

Unresolved Problems. Those of you who have bookmarked the Daynotes.com site to be your central menu to find the Daynoters may have noticed problems in reaching the site. Until this problem is resolved, you may want to use one of the mirror pages that some of the Daynoters have. For instance, mine! You can find it here. Just to be safe, you may want to bookmark that as a backup.

I'm really busy at work right now and still have to work on my paper for next week so I gotta go - Aloha!

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Thursday - 15 February 2001

An Ill Wind. Its been a wild and windy 24 hours around here. Winds gusting to 50 mph (about 81 kph) tore through parts of the state causing minor damage and some electrical blackouts (and yes, our sun deck is still leaking). We momentarily lost power last night for a few seconds. It's times like this that remind you how dependent on electricity we are.

Speaking of leaks, the more that information leaks out regarding the collision of the submarine and the fishing boat last week the worse the Navy looks. Perhaps not so much because of what they did, but rather what they did not do. Namely, come clean from the very beginning. By not saying right up front that not only were civilians on board, but that they were at the controls, makes it appear that the Navy has done something wrong, knows it, and is trying to hide the fact (which may be what they are doing). But this is a lesson on how not to create public trust and confidence in public institutions.

Interestingly enough, last night's West Wing episode had a story line about a police officer mentioned in a speech given by the President. The White House later finds that the officer was involved in an excessive force incident, 17 years earlier, that involved a Black man (the officer being White). Instead of doing what would probably actually be done, i.e., the White House stone walling and not saying anything, the Press Secretary decides to get out in front of the story and have the officer be interviewed on a morning news show to tell his side of the story. If only government actually worked that way.

Perhaps someday, institutions will understand that if the story is big enough, the details will eventually be known. So why not simply be up front to begin with and release the details, in the best light possible, rather than have things dribble out and appear to be hiding something, or even obstructing justice?

I have to do some research regarding the genesis of one of our courts so I gotta go - Aloha!

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Aloha Friday - 16 February 2001

It's Friday!

This one will most likely make sense for those who are from Hawai'i.

You Know If Someone Is From Hawaii If...

Monday's a national holiday so my post will be up a little later than usual. Until the, Have A Great Weekend Everyone! - Aloha!


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© 2001 Daniel K. Seto. All rights reserved.