Hard Luck. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. And if you are both, no one can stop you. That's how F1 driver Michael Schumacher must feel this morning. Schumacher was in second, 40 seconds behind the leader, going into the last lap of the Spanish Grand Prix yesterday. In F1, 40 seconds is an eternity. But if you are Mika Hakkinen, 40 seconds was not enough. With just 7 tenths of mile to the finish line, the clutch on his McLaren went up in a cloud of blue smoke. All he could do was watch Schumacher motor by to win the race. Juan Pablo Montoya finished his first race of the season in second place, and Jacques Villeneuve was third.
I've got a busy week to get through so postings may be a bit short. I have three more classes and one more paper for this semester. After that is a short vacation to Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Then I start a six-week practicum at First Hawaiian Bank's Trust Division.
First Hawaiian Bank was founded in 1858 and is the oldest financial institution in Hawaii. First Hawaiian has 56 branches throughout Hawaii, two in Guam and one in Saipan. Principal subsidiaries include First Hawaiian Insurance, Inc. and First Hawaiian Leasing, Inc. First Hawaiian Bank is a subsidiary of BancWest Corporation, a regional financial services company with total assets of $17.5 billion as of March 31, 2000.
The goal of the practicum is to get first hand experience in organizational change. First Hawaiian is going through dynamic changes as it passes perennial leader Bank of Hawai'i in revenue, if not assets.
During this period, it is doubtful I will be able to do the kind of posting I've been doing. Obviously, while I am on vacation I will not be able to do any posting at all. But once I'm at First Hawaiian, whatever I am able to post will probably be in the evenings rather than the mornings as I have been doing. I'll let you folks know when I know.
Aloha!
Top / Home / Monday / Tuesday / Wednesday / Thursday / Friday
Tuesday - 1 May 2001
Lei Day. May 1st is Lei Day in Hawai'i. To celebrate the day, the Hawai'i Visitors and Convention Center Bureau (see the May Day site here) will launch a promotion that will span the Rosie O'Donnell show in New York to Taiwan, Tokyo, Sydney, Auckland, San Francisco and Los Angeles. And what will they be doing? Why handing out leis of course. 2,000 of them.
Gotta Have Gadgets. For the gadget geek amongst you, check this site out: www.gadgetuniverse.com. From the desktop atomic clock to the Lightwave 2000 LED flashlight (torch to those across the pond). From the Casio wristwatch digital camera to the police radar jammer (for experimental purposes only, of course). This place has it all.
Sorry this post is up a little late but I'm at home today. My neck, which acts up every once in awhile, is bothering me today (I don't mind being a pain in the neck but when you are one...). I should be back in the saddle tomorrow. Until then---
Aloha!
Top / Home / Monday / Tuesday / Wednesday / Thursday / Friday
Hump Day Wednesday - 2 May 2001
Noonish Update. Okay, so I'm not exactly back in the saddle yet. My neck is still bothering me so I'm at home again today. At least I get to catchup with all those great TV shows I don't usually see. NOT.
Futures Studies 101. So the last module for this semester, and this year (whooo hooo!), is on futures studies. What is futures studies? you ask. First, it is not about predicting the future nor is it about crystal ball gazing. Rather, it is the use of theories and methods to forecast strong tendencies within a confidence window. That is, the future is fundamentally plural, an "arena of possibilities."
So what the futurist does is forecast a variety of alternative futures, rather than predict the future. They also work with communities to define preferred futures, all the while using feedback loops to refine and amend the preferences as times goes on. Here lies the paradox of futures studies. Marshall McLuhan noted that "we shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us." So as we create a preferred future, events in the future shape us.
If nothing else, the future is about change. Four factors influencing social change are: 1. Technology; 2. Age Co-Horts (i.e., generations); 3. Cycles/Long Waves; and 4. Decisions and Actions.
Technology - The diffusion of current technology, and the creation and diffusion of new technologies, change behavior and belief.
Age Co-Horts - The changing demographics of size, distribution, and diversity of the world influences the future.
Cycles - The rise and fall of cycles (e.g. Kondratieff Long Waves).
Decisions and Actions - The decisions we make, or don't make, critically affect future generations.
To digress for a moment, there are some interesting insights found through the use of defining age co-horts by Strauss and Howe (see Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 - 2069. New York: William Morrow. 1995. See also the Booknotes interview transcript here).
They note a recurring theme of generations that cycles over time and that can be described as follows: Idealists, Reactives, Civics, and Adaptives. Each of these four cycles have their own characteristics. Although their book goes back to 1584, let's look at more recent times:
| Generation | Description | Year Born to Year End |
| Civic | The G.I. Generation | 1900 - 2004 |
| Adaptive | The Silent Generation | 1925 - 2022 |
| Idealist | Baby Boomers | 1943 - 2040 |
| Reactive | Generation X | 1960 - 2061 |
| Civic | The Millenials | 1982 - 2083 |
| Adaptive | The Cyber Generation | 2004 - 2115 |
There are a lot of interesting stuff in futures studies. For those interested, the professor for this module is Jim Dator. His departmental site is here. He has several of his published articles there.
The pain in my neck tells me this is it for now. Hopefully, I'll be back to my regular schedule tomorrow.
Aloha!
Top / Home / Monday / Tuesday / Wednesday / Thursday / Friday
Thursday - 3 May 2001
If you missed my post for yesterday, scroll back up and take a look. It was a little late. Okay, it was very late, but I was sick. Really, I was. The post covers the last module for this semester, Futures Studies.
Good News, Bad News.<Rant> The Good News is the Legislature ends today. The Bad News is they've left two bombs that turn this state into a Republican stronghold. They may not realize they've done so, but this is what happened.
First, the Legislatures is taking away health benefits. Why? Because as the baby boomers reach retirement age, the cost of covering their medical expenses will explode. So rather than planning to cover the costs now, and wisely allocating funds for the future, and by doing so keep their side of the social contract intact, they tear it to bits and pull the rug out from under the employees. Well, I guess no one went broke under estimating the long-range planning of a politician.
The second is privatization. Don't get me wrong, I'm not against the idea. The problem is in the implementation. I have no problems with competition if the people who are doing the work now get a chance at bidding for it just like anyone else. But from what I understand, that's not how this bill works. This bill simply contracts it out to a private business without regard to the current employees. This means layoffs without any opportunity for the people who already know how to do the job to get a shot at the contract.
Not only is this bad public policy, it's also more expensive in the long run. More expensive? Yes because once the expertise is exported to private businesses, they will be the only ones who can do the job. Once that occurs, it's sort of like the relationship between drivers and the oil companies. The drivers need the gas and will pay whatever it takes to get it. If they don't, the services don't get done.
In my opinion, we've already seen this here when the last elections were contracted out. The only one to bid on it was the one that had been doing it for the last two or so elections. The problem is they were doing a terrible job. They lose ballot boxes, their scanners routinely break down, and when they work, they give bogus results. Even the Republicans complained about the company. But what can you do when an election is coming and only one company bids [other then bend over and cough? - Ed]. It's non-performers like this that make people yearn for the days that govmint ran the elections.
But why won't competition keep the prices as low as possible, while still maintaining a minimum level of service? Because private businesses are there to make a profit. A profit as large as the they can make, and there's nothing wrong with that. Until that is, a monopoly is created. And why would a company want to have a monopoly? Yes, you there in the back with your feet up on the desk. Maximum profit. You are correct, sir. All businesses talk about open and free competition, but what history has shown, and what big business really wants and is willing to pay politicians for, is restricted competition. In other words, a monopoly.</RANT>
Aloha!
Top / Home / Monday / Tuesday / Wednesday / Thursday / Friday
Aloha Friday - 4 May 2001
It's Friday!
My Brother's Keeper. The last regular class (we have one more Saturday class) of this semester was last night. And the question left for us to ponder is; "What, if any, responsibility do we have to future generations?" An interesting question. Some would say none, that we should eat, drink, drive SUVs, and be merry for tomorrow never comes [said in a German accent - Ed.]. Others would say we need to sacrifice all of our current needs for those, as yet, born.
As usual, the answer is somewhere in-between. The problem is trying to get people to plan for the future. Many people don't plan for their own future (e.g., lack of adequate retirement planning) much less one seven generations down the road. So how do we develop an ethics responsible to future generations? What institutions can we create to help us fulfill our obligations? How do we balance the immediate needs of the present with the needs of future generations? How do you determine what future generations want? How do we live our lives so that future generations have options to deal with their challenges?
A lot of good questions. How will future generations judge our answers?
Have a Great Weekend Everyone - Aloha!
© 2001 Daniel K. Seto. All rights reserved. Smoke and Mirrors. It's all done with smoke and mirrors.