Misc. Ramblings

A lot of people dream about finding that One_Big_Idea. You know the one, the one that will make them unbelievably rich. The one that will put them in the top tax bracket, and be so rich as to not care about it. That one idea that will make them as big as Bill Gates, Robert Scoble or Doc Searls (just kidding there guys). Some actually do (find that idea).

But if they do, the secret they probably won't tell you is that it took going through 100 or even 1,000 ideas that didn't work to find the one that did. When that one idea does hit, everyone slaps their forehead and says "Of course. Anyone could see that would be popular." But you know, the even bigger secret is that no one could have predicted which idea was going to be the one that millions of people, making individual decisions independent of others (more or less) would sell. Because if they could, they wouldn't need to sift through the 999 that wouldn't work.

This is what I call the chaos theory of business. Even if you do all the things that the business schools teach. Even if you excel at management and can motivate your employees to do great things. Even if you are the most innovative person on the planet. No one can predict that one idea that will move the world. And anyone who says they can is either lying or trying to get you to buy his or her new management book (or both).

If this theory is correct, then it follows that there is no shame in trying a lot of different things and seeing if they sell or not. It kind of reminds me of the stock market. "Stock market?" you ask, shaking your head in bewilderment.

Think of it this way. Buying stocks is a form of legalized gambling. All other things being equal, you have no guarantee that any stock you buy will make a profit. Hence, you have no better than a 50/50 chance of making money on any individual stock. If this is true, then the smart play is to buy many stocks in many different areas (or not play at all - ed.). This is called diversification. It works, over the long run if it works at all, because while most stocks won't make money, a few will. It's these few that may cover the loses of the others and hopefully, make you better off than you were before. But since no one, including that ace Wall Street stock picker, can predict which ones will make money and which won't, you have to diversify. Note, insert disclaimer here, I am not giving stock advice nor making any kind of recommendations to buy, or not buy, any stocks, bonds, or other instruments.

So what's my point? I was reminded of all of this when I saw Apple's new iPod Shuffle. A lot of people are making fun of it and saying you could just put a yellow sticky note over the display of your old iPod and you would have the same thing. Perhaps. But I don't think so. While many people who already have an iPod or iPod mini may decide to pass, many others who couldn't see paying three or four hundred dollars for one of these players may, without or perhaps in spite of the help of such pundits, decide to buy one.

I wouldn't be surprised if it does well. But even if it doesn't, so what? Apple will come up with something else that will catch the fancy of millions of people. And as long as Apple has the confidence (and money) to continue to innovate they will prosper (and I have to eat a lot of crow because I was one of those, several years ago, who predicted Apple was going down the tubes).

Programming Note: I will be taking tomorrow off so that I have a long weekend (including Monday's US holiday for Dr. Martin Luther King). As usual, there won't be a post tomorrow and possibly none for Monday (although I may get round2it).

Have a Great Weekend, EveryoneAloha!